Categories for Trade War

30,914. 11/22/2019

BUSINESS/CHINA/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Global stocks inched up on Friday [11-22-19], lifted by China’s renewed offer to work out a trade pact with Washington and despite signs that manufacturing in major eurozone economies was grinding to a halt. But gains were limited by uncertainty over how the 16-month-old U.S.-China trade war plays out and how much it may undermine the world economy. Such jitters have put MSCI’s index of global shares on course to snap a six-week streak of gains, with lacklustre economic data and rising political risks in the United States and Britain also casting a pall over sentiment. European shares rose off three-week lows touched on Thursday when it seemed that U.S. legislation on Hong Kong would undermine planned trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. The broader Euro STOXX 600 was up 0.4% and London-listed shares outperformed with a 1% rise as trade-exposed miners, banks and energy companies recovered from falls earlier this week.”

Sujata Rao, Tom Arnold, “GLOBAL MARKETS-Global shares inch up, but trade worries linger,” Reuters, November 22, 2019 4:20 am

30,491. 11/11/2019

CHINA/ECONOMY/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “‘The Chinese say (about Trump’s Trade War & Tariffs), ‘he brought us to the table.’ This is the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen, and it’s going to be a very prosperous economy.’ Jamie Dimon on @60Minutes Thank you President Trump & the Republican Party!”

Donald Trump, Twitter.com, November 11, 2019 9:25 am

29,350. 10/11/2019

CHINA/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday [10-11-19] outlined the first phase of a deal to end a trade war with China and suspended a threatened tariff hike, but officials on both sides said much more work needed to be done before an accord could be agreed. The emerging deal, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections, would represent the biggest step by the two countries in 15 months to end a tariff tit-for-tat that has whipsawed financial markets and slowed global growth. But Friday’s announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.”

Jeff Mason, David Lawder, “U.S. outlines ‘Phase 1’ trade deal with China, suspends October tariff hike,” Reuters, October 11, 2019 1:50 am

29,056. 10/4/2019

AGRICULTURE/ENERGY/EPA/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “The Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Agriculture jointly proposed new rules on Friday that would increase ethanol consumption at the expense of oil refineries to help corn and soybean farmers buffeted by President Trump’s trade wars. The plan would overhaul the system of quotas for ethanol, a fuel that is made from corn and other crops, as they blend their fuels. Its overall goal is to increase the sale of the biofuel beyond the current mandate of 15 billion gallons annually. It also will ensure that a gasoline blend made of 15 percent ethanol will be available at the pumps already in place at most gas stations, rather than requiring the installation of new pumps. The proposal also includes trade measures to increase the access of ethanol to foreign markets. The move is widely viewed as an effort to relieve pressure on farmers at a time when the Trump administration is escalating its trade war with China and Europe.”

Lisa Friedman, “Trump, Facing Farmers’ Discontent, Plans Help for Ethanol,” The New York Times online, October 4, 2019

29,036. 10/3/2019

CHINA/IMPEACHMENT/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Donald Trump just tossed his most pressing economic issue into the morass of impeachment politics. Trump’s suggestion Thursday [10-3-19] that Beijing should investigate a political rival, moments after threatening America’s ‘tremendous power’ in the ongoing trade talks with China, exposes his long-running negotiations with the world’s No. 2 economy to new scrutiny and could cast a political shadow over the results. Trump’s characteristic conflation of issues comes just a week before Chinese officials are due to arrive for a 13th round of trade talks in Washington. Even if Trump’s comments don’t shift the dynamic at the negotiating table, people who have been tracking every twist in the trade talks say the president’s statement will cloud how any outcome from the talks is received by Trump’s Democratic opponents and other U.S. policymakers.”

Adam Behsudi, “Trump throws an impeachment stink bomb into China trade talks,” Politico, October 3, 2019 6:02 pm

28,999. 10/3/2019

EU/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT/WTO: “The U.S. won a $7.5 Billion award from the World Trade Organization against the European Union, who has for many years treated the USA very badly on Trade due to Tariffs, Trade Barriers, and more. This case going on for years, a nice victory!”

Donald Trump, Twitter.com, October 3, 2019 5:00 am

28,958. 10/1/2019

FEDERAL RESERVE/TRADE WARS/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Donald Trump on Tuesday [10-1-19] lashed out at the Federal Reserve after a widely tracked gauge of U.S. manufacturing showed the sector shrank for the second straight month, coming in at its worst reading since 2009. Manufacturers have been slammed by a sharp drop in new export orders as a result of the tariff wars that Trump has started with the U.S.’s top trading partners, but the president faulted the Fed for not cutting interest rates fast enough…The president has repeatedly argued that Powell, the Fed chair, and the rest of the central bank are ‘clueless’ for keeping interest rates higher than in other countries. Trump is right that the dollar is strong — making American exports more expensive — although that has much more to do with the relative health of the U.S. economy than with anything the central bank does.”

Victoria Guida, “Trump blames Fed as trade wars weigh on manufacturing,” Politico, October 1, 2019 12:13 pm

28,563. 9/20/2019

CHINA/INDIA/TRADE DEALS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Call it the art of the mini-deal. The Trump administration is on the cusp of announcing a new trade deal with India, potentially within the next week as President Trump prepares to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. It should be a proud moment for Mr. Trump, who is eager to announce new markets for American farmers and manufacturers who have been badly hit by his trade war with China. But unlike traditional trade pacts, which cover nearly all sectors of the economy, the India deal appears likely to be confined to only a few sectors and products. Mini-deals are becoming something of a trend for Mr. Trump ahead of the 2020 election. In addition to India, he is expected to soon announce a limited trade agreement with Japan. While smaller deals may prove easier to win than comprehensive agreements, they are raising concerns among some lawmakers and businesses about the precedent Mr. Trump is setting by striking limited pacts that could leave significant issues unresolved.”

Ana Swanson and Vindu Goel, “With India, Trump Practices the Art of the Mini-Deal,” The New York Times online, September 20, 2019

28,119. 9/4/2019

CHINA/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “‘U.S. Winning Trade War With China In Dollars.’ CNBC” 

Donald Trump, Twitter.com, September 4, 2019 8:52 am

28,092. 9/3/2019

CHINA/ECONOMY/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “The American manufacturing sector contracted last month, a key measure showed on Tuesday [9-3-19], heightening fears that the trade war with China could bring on a recession. Manufacturing accounts for just 11 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, but it is often seen as an economic harbinger. Stocks fell on Wall Street after the release of the report, from the Institute for Supply Management, with the S&P 500 index closing down 0.7 percent…The institute’s manufacturing index was at 49.1 for August, down from 51.2 in July. Anything below 50 is considered a sign of contraction. The index is based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers.”

Nelson D. Schwartz, “U.S. Manufacturing Slowed in August in Latest Sign of Economic Weakness,” The New York Times online, September 3, 2019

28,089. 9/3/2019

CHINA/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Trump said on Tuesday [9-2-19] that Chinese manufacturing would ‘crumble’ if the country did not agree to the United States’ trade terms, as newly released data showed his trade war was washing back to American shores and hurting the factories that the president has aimed to protect. Days after new tariffs went into effect on both sides of the Pacific, a closely watched index of American manufacturing activity fell to 49.1 from 51.2, signaling a contraction in United States factory activity for the first time since 2016. The companies responding to the Institute for Supply Management survey, which the index is based on, cited shrinking export orders as a result of the trade dispute, as well as the challenge of moving supply chains out of China to avoid the tariffs. The manufacturing sector’s struggles are likely to increase as the world’s two largest economies continue to escalate their trade fight.”

Ana Swanson, “Trump Says China Will Suffer as Data Shows Trade War Hurting U.S.,” The New York Times online, September 3, 2019

28,055. 9/2/2019

BUSINESS/CHINA/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Before the trade war threatened to upend everything, Lena Phoenix spent most of her hours puzzling over how to expand the thriving footwear business she and her husband had founded in their home in Colorado. Now, she is mostly consumed with finding a way around the tariffs that President Trump just imposed, bringing expensive complications. The latest round took effect on Sunday [9-1-19], increasing the costs that Americans pay for $112 billion worth of goods imported from China, among them the shoes and sandals designed and sold by Ms. Phoenix’s company, Xero Shoes. Mr. Trump has hailed his tariffs as a means of forcing American companies to abandon China and make their goods at home. Ms. Phoenix has taken the trade war as impetus to seek alternatives to the Chinese factories that now make her company’s products. But the United States presents no viable options, she says.”

Peter S. Goodman, “Make Shoes in U.S., or Pay Tariffs? A Footwear Company Seeks a Third Option,” The New York Times online, September 2, 2019

28,008. 8/31/2019

CHINA/DEMS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Just watched Congresswoman Debbie Dingell, and many other Democrats, wanting to give up on our very successful Trade battle with China, which has had its worst Economic year in memory (and getting worse). We are taking in $Billions. Will be big for Farmers and ALL!” 

Donald Trump, Twitter.com, August 31, 2019 1:29 pm

27,941. 8/30/2019

CHINA/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Donald Trump on Friday [8-30-19] appeared to accuse companies of falsely claiming that they’ve been hurt by his escalating trade war with China, instead saying they’re mismanaging their businesses…Trump’s comments come just days before the U.S. is set to impose new tariffs on China in two rounds, with the first due to start on Sept. 1. The 10 percent tariff on approximately $112 billion of Chinese goods would likely raise prices for consumer items like electronics and shoes. In one example of corporate America complaining about Trump’s trade war, the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America wrote a letter to the president this week stating that the planned tariffs would drive up costs for consumers.”

Evan Semones, “Trump blames companies impacted by his trade war,” Politico, August 30, 2019 11:40 am

27,921. 8/30/2019

CHINA/ECONOMY/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Trump’s economic advisers do not see a recession on the horizon, but they worry that gloomy news reports and a drumbeat of recession warnings could turn fear of one into reality. In an interview on Thursday [8-29-19], the acting chairman of Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Tomas Philipson, said reporters who had fixated on possible signs of a recession in bond markets this month appeared ‘to want people to lose jobs’ and ‘become not economically self-sufficient’…Mr. Trump’s escalating trade war is the reason economists, traders and the American public are increasingly worried about the possibility of recession. As the president punishes China with higher tariffs — and Beijing retaliates — the fight is exacerbating a global growth slowdown while dragging on investment and business confidence in America.”

Jim Tankersley and Jeanna Smialek, “Will America Talk Itself Into a Recession? Trump’s Advisers Are Worried,” The New York Times online, August 30, 2019

27,911. 8/29/2019

CHINA/ECONOMY/GOP/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Republicans have sat patiently with President Donald Trump on his tariff roller-coaster ride with China. Now they’re starting to feel queasy. Trump argues his escalating trade war will force China to the table for a deal. But his ever-rising tariffs — and his market-rattling tweets — are increasingly alarming the GOP…But particularly as the global economy cools, key Republicans say new levies on almost all Chinese goods threaten to step on the president’s good news story: A growing economy, rising wages and low unemployment. And that could have outsize effects on Republicans’ tough task of defending the Senate and the White House in 2020…Most Republicans have resisted Trump’s protectionist tendencies for ideological reasons as well as for the hit to the economy and their own political fortunes. But they’ve made an exception on China given its economic rivalry with the United States.”

Burgess Everett, “Republicans grow anxious about the Trump economy,” Politico, August 29, 2019 10:01 am

27,852. 8/27/2019

ELECTION/FEDERAL RESERVE/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “A former top Federal Reserve official implied that the central bank should consider allowing President Trump’s trade war to hurt his 2020 election chances, an assertion that drew a firestorm of criticism and a rare pushback from the Fed itself. William Dudley, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and now a research scholar at Princeton University, said in a Bloomberg Opinion piece that ‘Trump’s re-election arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy.’ Mr. Dudley added that ‘if the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.’ It is a controversial statement, particularly coming from an official who ranked among the Fed’s most powerful policymakers as recently as 2018. It also comes at a sensitive moment for the Fed, which has been under attack from Mr. Trump and trying to assert its independence from the White House and politics in general.”

Jeanna Smialek, “Fed Could Hit Back at Trump, a Former Top Official Suggests,” The New York Times online, August 27, 2019

27,851. 8/27/2019

AGRICULTURE/CHINA/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT/TRUMP PEOPLE: “Peppered with complaints from farmers fed up with President Trump’s trade war, Sonny Perdue found his patience wearing thin. Mr. Perdue, the agriculture secretary and the guest of honor at the annual Farmfest gathering in southern Minnesota this month, tried to break the ice with a joke. ‘What do you call two farmers in a basement?’ Mr. Perdue asked near the end of a testy hourlong town-hall-style event. ‘A whine cellar.’ A cascade of boos ricocheted around the room. American farmers have become collateral damage in a trade war that Mr. Trump began to help manufacturers and other companies that he believes have been hurt by China’s ‘unfair’ trade practices. More than a year into the trade dispute, sales of American soybeans, pork, wheat and other agricultural products to China have dried up as Beijing retaliates against Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Lucrative contracts that farmers long relied on for a significant source of income have evaporated, with Chinese buyers looking to other nations like Brazil and Canada to get the commodities they need.”

Alan Rappeport, “Farmers’ Frustration With Trump Grows as U.S. Escalates China Fight,” The New York Times online, August 27, 2019

27,838. 8/26/2019

CHINA/ECONOMY/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “As President Trump intermittently escalates and moderates his trade war with China, his conflicting signals reflect a reality that limits his actions: He can try to sever the deeply intertwined American commercial relationship with China, or he can prod economic growth to assuage the fears of investors around the planet. But he cannot do both at the same time. Mr. Trump need not rely on the testimonials of economists to deduce this. He can disregard the admonitions of news outlets he derides as fake news. He can simply consult the one source whose verdicts he tends to celebrate: the stock market. Among those who control money, portents of further trade hostilities between the United States and China, the two largest economies on earth, have proved an impetus to sell with abandon while amplifying talk of recession. Intimations of a deal avoiding further animosity reverberate as a clarion call to buy, sending share prices higher while easing worries about a potential global economic downturn.”

Peter S. Goodman, “Trump Can Battle China or Expand the Economy. He Can’t Do Both.,” The New York Times online, August 26, 2019

27,837. 8/26/2019

CHINA/FRANCE/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Remember when President Xi Jinping of China was the ‘enemy’? That was so Friday. As of Monday [8-26-19], according to President Trump, Mr. Xi was ‘a great leader’ and a ‘brilliant man.’ What about that edict by Mr. Trump, who ‘hereby ordered’ American companies to leave China? Three days later, he was positive he would get a trade deal and, if so, then firms should ‘stay there and do a great job.’ Mr. Trump spent the weekend in France insisting that he was not having a debate with his fellow world leaders, but at times it seemed like he was having a debate with himself. Day by day, even hour by hour, his approach to the trade war with China, the most consequential economic conflict on the planet, veered back and forth, leaving much of the world with geopolitical whiplash. If he seemed all over the map, he made clear on Monday, as he wrapped up days of diplomacy, that the world would just have to get used to it. He likes leaving negotiating partners, adversaries, observers and even allies off balance.”

Peter Baker, “As Trump Swerves on Trade War, It’s Whiplash for the Rest of the World,” The New York Times online, August 26, 2019

27,733. 8/23/2019

ECONOMY/FEDERAL RESERVE/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, kept future interest rate cuts squarely on the table on Friday [8-23-19] but suggested that the central bank was limited in its ability to counteract President Trump’s trade policies, which are stoking uncertainty and posing risks to the economic outlook. Mr. Powell’s remarks drew a swift and angry reaction from Mr. Trump, who equated the Fed leader with the president’s adversary in the trade war, President Xi Jinping of China. ‘My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?,’ Mr. Trump wrote in one of a series of Twitter posts. The president’s harsh response to Mr. Powell, a frequent target of Mr. Trump’s ire, came after the Fed chair suggested that the central bank may be unable to overcome economic uncertainty stemming from the president’s trade war.”

Jeanna Smialek, “Powell Highlights Fed’s Limits. Trump Labels Him an ‘Enemy’,” The New York Times online, August 23, 2019

27,504. 8/16/2019

CHINA/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “To the outside world, China’s ruling Communist Party – faced with an expanding trade war crimping an already slowing economy and spiraling protests in Hong Kong – is confronting some of its strongest political and economic headwinds in decades. But at home, where China’s elite leaders prepare for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic this October, there are few indications that President Xi Jinping is politically embattled. Many in Beijing believe U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to the trade war, and the Chinese government’s effort to use Washington as a scapegoat for the Hong Kong unrest, provides Xi with convenient and effective short-term political cover. This time last year, as Xi and other top officials held secretive talks at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, there was an unusual surge of criticism in official circles about economic policy and how the government had handled the trade war with the United States, sources told Reuters at the time.

Michael Martina, Kevin Yao, “Amid crises, frayed U.S. ties give China’s Xi political cover at home,” Reuters, August 16, 2019 2:24 am

27,486. 8/15/2019

AUSTRALIA/CHINA/ECONOMY/TRADE WAR/TREASURY/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Australian and New Zealand shares fell sharply on Thursday [8-15-19] as investors sold off equities globally in search of safety after a drop in a U.S. bond yield curve highlighted the risk of recession. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note briefly fell below the two-year yield, a pattern that is widely seen as an indicator of a looming recession. The inversion, as it is known, last happened in 2007 and proved to be correct when the global financial crisis hit the following year. The S&P/ASX 200 index sank 2.9% to 6,408.1 points, its lowest level since early June. The benchmark had managed a 0.4% gain on Wednesday [8-14-19] after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on some Chinese imports, easing some fears over the escalating U.S.-China trade war. Worries of contagion gripped markets, with investors shifting money away from sectors such as financials and mining to the relative safety of gold. Australia has proved in the past to be relatively resistant to global recessions and was one of the few developed economies that escaped the crisis in 2008.”

Nikhil Nainan, “Recession fear grips Australia, NZ stock markets,” Reuters, August 15, 2019 2:50 pm

27,455. 8/14/2019

CHINA/ECONOMY/TARIFFS/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “In a span of less than 24 hours, developments in Washington and Wall Street have sent a vivid message: The world is ambling toward an economic morass of the sort that no mere presidential tweet can fix. On Tuesday [8-13-19], President Trump blinked in the trade war with China, retreating from previous plans to apply tariffs to virtually all Chinese imports on Sept. 1. The action ensures that American buyers of Chinese-made toys, smartphones and much more won’t face tariff-boosted prices this holiday season…The bond market wasn’t quite so buoyant. While longer-term Treasury yields rose, reflecting more optimism, the increase was slight — and they remained far below their levels of late July…But events this month signal that the problems facing the world economy are more complex and intractable than the immediate reaction to President Trump’s trade war de-escalation might suggest. A tactical retreat here and there won’t solve the deeper problems hanging over the world economy. Once chaos has been unleashed into the global economic system, it can be hard to reel back in.”

Neil Irwin, “Global Economic Trouble Is Brewing, and the Trade War Is Only Part of It,” The New York Times online, August 14, 2019

27,452. 8/14/2019

CHINA/ECONOMY/GERMANY/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “In ominous signs of the damage being done by the trade war between China and the United States, data released on Wednesday [8-14-19] indicated that the German economy was hurtling toward recession and that growth at Chinese factories was slowing at a pace not seen in nearly two decades. The numbers are among the most tangible consequences of President Trump’s tariffs on global trade for China as well as Germany, which sets the tone for Europe. Mr. Trump is succeeding in inflicting pain on countries he accuses of unfair trade practices, but economists warn that the pain is likely to boomerang onto the United States. Germany’s economy shrank 0.1 percent from April through June, and it has been treading water for the past year, the government’s official statistics agency said. Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that the economy would continue to shrink in the current quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession. In China, factory output in July fell to its slowest pace in 17 years, according to government data.”

Jack Ewing, “Germany Nears Recession and Chinese Factories Slow in Trade War Fallout,” The New York Times online, August 14, 2019