CHINA/ECONOMY/MEXICO/TRADE WAR/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Donald Trump is trying to pull off the riskiest high-wire act of his presidency, threatening to escalate trade battles with Mexico and China even as warnings signals flash about a possible recession arriving just as his reelection campaign begins. Trump is edging to the brink of a two-front trade war in a very different environment than he enjoyed last year, when the GOP tax cut pumped billions of dollars of stimulus into the U.S. economy. Analysts now expect economic growth to slow closer to a 2 percent pace this year. And investors, Wall Street analysts and the Federal Reserve are signaling that if Trump doesn’t make quick deals, growth could stall out completely…Signals on the direction of the U.S. economy remain mixed. A reading on private payrolls in May showed the smallest gain since 2010. And the official government employment gauge out Friday morning showed an increase of just 75,000 jobs in May, a slowdown well below expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, near a 50-year low. And the stock market tanked in May as investors worried about the impact of Trump’s tariffs.”
-Ben White, “Trump’s high-wire act on trade risks a rough fall,” Politico, June 7, 2019 9:09 am