ECONOMY/ELECTION/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “In just one week, the current economic expansion will turn 10 years old and officially become the longest in American history, an occasion likely to elicit bragging from the White House. But it will also highlight a major risk for President Donald Trump. Signs of a slowdown are mounting with weaker job growth, reduced manufacturing activity and a nervous Federal Reserve hinting at slashing interest rates — suggesting that Trump could suffer from terrible economic timing. All recent presidents other than Bill Clinton experienced slowdowns in their first terms, but most sought reelection as the economy was improving. No president since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 has held on to the White House during an election year marred by recession. Trump may avoid running for reelection in an official recession, especially if he gets his much desired rate cuts from the Fed. But there is a good chance he’ll be seeking a second term with the economy slowing and unemployment rising, especially if he continues to engage in bruising trade battles. Voters tend to lock in their assessment of a president’s performance on the economy a few months before Election Day, meaning Trump’s strongest argument for four more years may not wind up being all that strong.”
–Ben White, “How Trump could have terrible economic timing,” Politico, June 24, 2019 5:01 am