CAMPAIGN/ECONOMY/ELECTION/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Donald Trump’s economic officials are reassuring investors about recent white-knuckle stock market volatility, while Trump’s political advisers are increasingly alarmed that the economy could present a stiff 2020 campaign headwind. Many of Trump’s political allies acknowledge that his reelection prospects hinge in large part on how Americans judge their economic prospects at the time of the next election. And many independent analysts say that recent market turbulence is a warning sign that the U.S. economy will likely slow and maybe even tip into recession by 2020. At the moment, that scenario could be the biggest threat to Trump’s chances at winning a second term, according to interviews with eight current and former senior administration officials and close White House advisers. The president knows this better than anyone, since he is highly attuned to fluctuations in the stock market and views it as a form of polling. At times, Trump has bragged about the market’s performance on a near-daily basis. A real estate mogul who has borrowed heavily, Trump is equally obsessed with interest rates, and has closely monitored the run-up to a mid-December Federal Reserve meeting in which central bankers are expected to raise rates.”
–Nancy Cook, “Trump advisers fear 2020 nightmare: A recession,” Politico, December 7, 2018 8:40 am