9/11/2018

POLLS/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Donald Trump’s approval rating in the latest CNN poll stands at just 36%. That’s a 6-point drop from 42% last month. Normally, I’d dismiss such a decline as statistical noise and want to see other polls before declaring that the President’s standing among the public has diminished. Here’s the thing: CNN’s poll is only the latest in a series of high-quality, live-interview polling over the last two weeks to show that Trump’s approval rating is down. This dip could have a major impact on the midterms if it holds. Eight high-quality polls have been completed over the two last weeks — and every single one of them has Trump’s approval falling. In the latest average, Trump’s approval rating is about 38% in eight polls from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN, Gallup, IBD/TIPP, the Kaiser Family Foundation, Quinnipiac University, Selzer & Co. and Suffolk University. If we just took an average of the last polls by these organizations completed August 27 or earlier, Trump’s approval rating stood at 41%. Now, not all of these pollsters show the same drop. Trump’s 6-point decline in CNN’s poll is the largest. When you take an average of their latest two tracking polls compared with their prior two, Gallup has Trump dipping just a percentage point. You’d expect such differences though given sampling error.”

Harry Enten, “It’s not just CNN’s poll. All polling shows Trump’s approval rating dropping.,” CNN Politics, CNN.com, September 11, 2018 1:59 pm