DEMS/ELECTION/SENATE/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “The Senate map for Democrats this fall is daunting. Republicans are only defending nine Senate seats up for reelection, while Democrats are defending 26 seats. Moreover, 10 of the Democratic-held seats are in states Donald Trump won in 2016 and five are in states he won by about 20 points or more. Yet, a look at the early polling data suggests that the map may be somewhat misleading. No, Democrats are not favored to take back the Senate. But they are significantly outperforming the 2016 presidential lean in the 2018 Senate races significantly. That gives them a non-nominal chance at winning control. Since January, 23 of the 35 Senate races in 2018 have been polled. Not all of these polls are the highest quality, but polls not conducted on behalf of the parties or its candidates tell a pretty similar story across the races. When you compare each race’s average with the 2016 presidential baseline (i.e. how well Hillary Clinton did in the state relative to how she did nationally), Democrats are outperforming in 22 of the 23 races.”
-Harry Enten, “Democrats so far are playing a good defense in fight for Senate control,” CNN Politics, CNN.com, June 22, 2018 3:37 pm