3/25/2019

CONGRESS/NAFTA/TRADE DEALS/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “President Donald Trump brags that his new NAFTA deal is the most important trade agreement in U.S. history, but a congressionally mandated analysis due out next month is expected to show that it will provide only a slight boost to economic growth — or even a small negative impact. Laura Baughman, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington-based analytical firm with more than 25 years of experience in crunching data to forecast the effects of trade agreements and other policy actions, predicted the deal will improve the U.S. gross domestic product by about 0.1 percent…Two other trade experts who have been examining the deal also said the U.S. International Trade Commission report is likely to show an extremely slight gain in the GDP, and both said a negative impact was possible. That could be a problem for Trump. Release of the ITC report — expected around April 19 — has been seen as a crucial moment in the Trump administration’s efforts to win congressional approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. A forecast of a minimal increase in the GDP, especially in the manufacturing sector, could make it hard for Trump to sell the agreement to Democrats and labor groups, who have been pressing for changes to be made through further negotiation.”

Doug Palmer, “Crucial analysis of new NAFTA won’t help Trump sell the deal,” Politico, March 25, 2019 3:35 pm