ELECTION/POLLS/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “Every two years, a small league of political scientists and economists fire up computer models they’ve developed to predict who will win the U.S. congressional elections in November. Several who use economic data in their models have concluded that unless the economy gets quite a bit stronger Republicans will not be able to retain their hold on Congress. The U.S. economy is doing well by many measures. But their analysis, based on data running back to the 1940s or earlier, gives evidence Democrats have a good chance of winning at least 23 seats at November’s midterm polls, enough to take control of the House of Representatives. One leading model, developed by Michael Lewis-Beck of the University of Iowa and Charles Tien of City University of New York, uses after-tax personal income growth as a key indicator. Presidential approval ratings are the other critical factor in the model, weighing more heavily than income. With Trump’s rating at 42 percent in Gallup’s early June polls, Lewis-Beck said, ‘the economy has got to really be rocking for them to overcome that drag.’”
-Jason Lange, “Republicans might need an even stronger U.S. economy to hold onto House,” Reuters, June 29, 2018 10:54 am