FOREIGN POLICY/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “If you were getting whiplash from the Middle East last year, brace for more in 2018.
The region has always possessed a unique capacity to surprise, in part because so many of its decision makers are autocrats or absolute monarchs who can enact major policy changes without the long deliberations and consensus-seeking that tends to occur in democracies.
In the past, the U.S. role as underwriter of security in the Middle East and principal ally of most of the region’s powers tempered some of the more reckless moves by local leaders. That began to change with President Barack Obama’s disengagement from the region. Under President Donald Trump, with conflicting messages emanating on key issues from the White House, Pentagon and State Department, sheer confusion over who actually speaks for America has further undermined Washington’s ability to serve as a factor of stability… Add to this the fact that the region itself has grown increasingly autocratic. Many governments—in a continuing reaction to the legacy of the Arab Spring—are tightening restrictions on expression and eliminating whatever checks and balances existed before.
On the ground, this means that regional leaders are more frequently acting out on their impulses, often with disastrous consequences—and sometimes under the mistaken assumption that Washington has their back.”
-Yaroslav Trofimov, “U.S. Continues to Play Diminished Role in Mideast,” The Wall Street Journal online, Jan. 22, 2018 10:00am