NAFTA/TRADE DEALS/TRUMP AS PRESIDENT: “The probability of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement is roughly 1 in 4, according to private-sector forecasters, who said such a move would likely weigh on economic growth.
President Donald Trump has threatened to pull the U.S. out of Nafta if efforts to renegotiate it fail. The talks are set to resume Nov. 17 in Mexico City.
Some 82% of economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal said if the U.S. does withdraw, gross domestic product would grow at a weaker rate over the subsequent two years than it would have been otherwise. An additional 7% said the economy would weaken so much that it would enter a recession.
‘U.S. growth could take a hit as trade flows collapse with some of our largest trading partners and punitive tariffs are imposed in retaliation,’ said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West.
No economists predicted a Nafta withdrawal would boost economic growth, while 11% said it would have no effect.”
-Ben Leubsdorf, “Forecasters Predict Nafta Withdrawal Would Slow U.S. Growth,” The Wall Street Journal online, Nov. 9, 2017 10:00am