CANADA/NAFTA/TRADE DEALS: “Bank of Canada watchers unanimously believe the central bank will hit pause on Wednesday [10-25-17] when it releases its latest policy decision and won’t raise rates after two consecutive increases.
There is also less certainty among analysts about the timing of the next rate increase in Canada due to the negative turn in talks to reshape the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Economists from 10 primary dealers of Canadian government securities participated in the The Wall Street Journal survey ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision Wednesday. One dealer, HSBC Bank Canada, did not take part in the Journal’s survey.
Growth in Canada has slowed after a stellar one-year run. Three straight months of declines in exports and a poor showing in August retail sales has taken the shine off of 12 months of 3.7% growth as of June 30.
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has said the central bank would be in a heightened ‘data-dependent’ mode, with particular focus on how the economy responds to two rate increases in July and September. On the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meeting earlier this month, he reiterated his concern over slower expansion.”
-Paul Vieira, “Bank of Canada Likely on Hold, With Nafta Clouding Rate Outlook,” The Wall Street Journal online, Oct. 24, 2017 06:43am